Violence a wild-card as Thailand braces for protests

[CrazyExpat]

BANGKOK (Reuters) - Red-shirted supporters of ousted Thai premier Thaksin Shinawatra are gearing up for mass protests, but their goal of bringing down the government looks difficult, and stirring up violence will not help their cause.

Mindful of unruly protests last April, the government is tightening security in Bangkok to prevent "hard-core elements" from starting riots this month, saying it had evidence Thaksin's supporters may resort to violence.

Clashes, however, could undermine popular support for either "red shirts" -- the mainly rural supporters of Thaksin -- against protesters clad in yellow - the royalists, urban elites and the military.

"Widespread violence on the scale of April 2009 is unlikely in the near term. The reds are in disarray and they have learned from the April riots. They may opt for a battle of attrition instead of an all-out showdown," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political science professor at Chulalongkorn University.

Thitinan said conflict would continue to flare up and subside as long as the "red shirts" felt they were economically and politically marginalised by the elite.

Protests, he said, were more likely to take the form of a "drawn-out, topsy-turvy grind" rather than a showdown. But he said neither violence nor even a coup could be ruled out if current Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva fails to heal divisions.

"Abhisit's inability to bridge the divide means that pro-Thaksin forces can still win the next election. The army's current high command would rather see a coup than an election."

"Red shirt" protest leaders predicted on Tuesday more than a million people would rally on Bangkok in their "final gathering" for a February 26 court ruling on whether Thai courts can confiscate $2.3 billion of Thaksin's assets.

http://af.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idAFTRE6191V820100210