Understanding Thailand’s Troubles

[CrazyExpat]

A very unique sort of blood drive is currently underway in Bangkok. Outside Government House, hundreds of Thais have lined up to donate their blood to the cause- the political cause, that is. The bags of blood are not intended for medical use, but are instead being ceremoniously splattered on the gates and pavement of Government House, a visceral and highly visible symbol of anger with the Thai government.

The congealed blood decorating Government House is simply the latest stunt of the latest protest against the latest government in Bangkok. Once again, tens of thousands of protestors clad in red have shut down parts of Thailand’s steaming capital in an attempt to force the current prime minister, Abhisit Vejjajiva, to dissolve Parliament. Like the last few times the Red Shirts stormed Bangkok, the likely outcome of the protests will be a messy clean-up job, a handful of deaths- already, two soldiers were wounded when grenades were fired on a Bangkok military camp- and another blow to Thailand’s vital tourism industry, already shaken by the week-long takeover of Bangkok’s international airport in 2008. What we are not likely to see, however, is any sort of meaningful political movement away from the vicious cycle of political in-fighting and corruption that has plagued Thailand’s government and effectively divided the country for the past several years.

For those who haven’t been able to keep a close eye on political developments in the Land of Smiles, the current political crisis in Thailand is, on the most basic level, a conflict between the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship (UDD), commonly known as the Red Shirts, and the New Politics Party (PAD), or the Yellow Shirts. The Red Shirts, led by the exiled former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a 2006 military coup and recently convicted in absentia of corruption, are made up largely of the rural poor, a vast constituency that swept Shinawatra’s party to victory in the 2001 and 2005 elections. The urban elite, wealthy business owners, and royalists comprise the bulk of the Yellow Shirts, who are led by Prime Minister Vejjajiva. Since the 2006 coup, both parties have alternated between dominating the government and staging massive protests against the government when out of power. At the moment, the Red Shirts want the Vejjajiva administration, which they consider illegitimate, to call elections, which the UDD is likely to win, as it has in the past. The Yellow Shirts, who came into power after a Thai court disbanded the UDD’s predecessor, contend that elections will not resolve the country’s political crisis, and vow that Vejjajiva will serve out the final two years of his term.

At the root of the political rancor between the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts is a deep societal divide between the two parties. The Yellow Shirts represent the urban elite, and are determined to create a government that supports the interests of that elite. Unfortunately, the Yellow Shirts find themselves at odds with the wishes of the Thai majority, who continue to champion Shinawatra’s populist policies and leadership. The Yellow Shirts have chosen to deal with the tricky issue of the desires of the masses by contending that Shinawatra is hopelessly corrupt, which is true, and that rural Thais are too poorly educated to be responsible voters, which is not. For the past few years, politics have been stuck in a repeating loop: popular votes put the Red Shirts in power, then judicial rulings (and a military coup) find some pretext of electoral fraud or party misdemeanors as an excuse for their removal, paving the way for the Yellow Shirts to take power. Repeat. Compounding the issue is widespread national anxiety over the health of King Bhumibol Adulyadej, Thailand’s beloved, long-reigning monarch, who has been a force of stability and constancy throughout the political altercations of the past fifty years.

The current cycle of power struggles and protests is not likely to stop anytime soon, though Shinawatra’s power diminishes each day he is forced to stay outside the country. If the Vejjajiva administration lasts another two years, which is likely, then it must call for elections and respect the results. In the meantime, however, the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts might choose to do something more productive than protest in the streets: they might look for new leaders. If there is to be any sort of meaningful reconciliation between the political parties both Vejjiajiva and Shinawatra must be replaced by more centrist figures. Vejjiajiva is simply too much a member of the elite class to be accepted by the majority of Thais. Born in England, educated at Eton and Oxford, he is seen as out of touch with the rural Northeast, where locals like to joke that he’d need a passport to visit them. Shinawatra may be popular in that region, but he will never be accepted by the entrenched interests in Bangkok. Charges of corruption and extrajudicial killings during his controversial war on drugs will continue to plague him, as will his inability to return to Thailand without getting arrested.

Without new leadership that can be seen as viable by both parties, Thai politics will remain as it is. This is not to say that the country is doomed. Despite the seemingly irreconcilable aims of each side, we should not expect the implosion of Thailand that so many Southeast-Asia watchers seem to relish predicting. As rambunctious as Thai politics may get, they do not hold hostage the well-being of the country, which has a remarkable resilience. Moreover, the political system does have a method of self correction, albeit not the most desirable kind- the military coup. Since becoming a constitutional democracy in 1932, Thailand has seen the military step in a total of 18 times. And yet the country soldiers on.

However, Thailand holds the potential for more than it is currently achieving. And to reach that potential, some measure of compromise and stability must be introduced into the political situation. Without effective governance, the country will not be able to reconcile the effects of the rising gap between the rich and the poor, maintain growth in vital industries such as tourism, and commit to building the social and educational infrastructure the country needs. If Thailand seeks to continue calling itself a democracy, then it must effectively take on the political challenges posed by being one.

Across the Aisle: The PSA Blog » Understanding Thailand’s Troubles