Baht May Rise 3.3% Versus Yen on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis

[CrazyExpat]

March 31 (Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s baht may strengthen 3.3 percent against the yen in a month based on so-called Fibonacci points and moving averages for the currency, according to Okasan Securities Co. Ltd.

The baht appreciated 7.3 percent in March versus the Japanese currency, its best monthly performance since November 1998, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

After rising beyond 2.8884 yen, the baht may advance to 2.9813, which represents a 61.8 percent retracement of its decline to a January 2009 low from a high in August 2008, based on the Fibonacci sequence, said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and foreign-exchange dealer at Okasan in Tokyo.

“There is a good chance the baht will move to another upper range,” Soma said. “Gains in the baht stalled four times near the 50 percent rebound level of 2.8884 in 2009, and a break of that will give it further momentum.”

Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Other Fibonacci levels are 23.6, 38.2, and 76.4. A break above resistance, or an area where sell orders may be clustered, signals a currency may move to the next level.

The baht’s five-day moving average against the yen crossed above the 10-day line on March 5 in a so-called “golden cross,” which forms when short-term moving averages pass above longer-term lines. The currency has traded mostly above the 200- day mark since, another bullish signal, Soma said.

Thailand’s currency rose 0.6 percent to 2.8854 yen as of 11:26 a.m. in Bangkok, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 2.8920, the highest level since June 2009.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Baht May Rise 3.3% Versus Yen on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis - Bloomberg.com

[Thaimo]

So many predictions of what will happen with the value of the baht have been published, with so few ever turning out to be right, you might as well place all the predictions into a bucket, blindfold yourself, and just pull one out. From what I understand, the baht is as strong as it is due to enormous amounts of investment money pouring in from Japan. The Japanese must be speculating that the political turmoil will not hurt their investments. If that is correct, if the day ever comes when they start pulling out massive amounts, then the value of the baht will go into a tailspin.

All we can do is wait and see.

[Beer Chang]

All the talking heads are saying are saying the yen will also depreciate against the dollar.

[lvdkeyes]

I got baht from the bank yesterday afternoon and got 32.60B/$, which is up .28 since I got money a week before.

[Beer Chang]

Think this has more to do with a stregnthening dollar than a falling baht, which is good for Americans that have most of their savings in dollars.

Here's a link where u can fool around with currency graphs:

USDTHB=X: Basic Chart for USD/THB - Yahoo! Finance